Tribune. By what measure should we measure the economic performance of the five-year period ending? The question is important because, if some candidates decide to put economic issues in the background, the President of the Republic and his supporters believe that the economy has always been their strong point. If the subject is complex, four macroeconomic quantities are shared sufficiently to allow decision-making: foreign trade, unemployment, compulsory levies, and public finance.

Naturally, before any evaluation, certain precautions are necessary. The first, most obvious, is that France was in a certain position in 2017, and once the electoral campaign illusion was over, the economy experienced an inertia that must be acknowledged. The second is the crisis associated with Covid-19, which, it must be remembered, would have been twice as severe for France in 2020 (8.8 percent in the rolling year) as the 2008 financial crisis (3.9% recession in 2009) . And that it severely disrupted all economic indicators, making it even more difficult to create a balance sheet “all other things being equal.”

Such precautions themselves demand specifics. Because, alas, crises come back more and more often. Furthermore, if the crises are exogenous, not all countries react with the same severity. Lastly, if we consider the last two major crises (2008 and 2020), the five-year terms of Nicolas Sarkozy and Emmanuel Macron began even before they occurred. So don’t be afraid to see facts and figures as they are. And they are stubborn.

bad condition

The situation is dire in terms of competition. According to INSEE, in 2017, the trade balance was at a deficit of 58.5 billion euros. The most recent data from the Customs Administration shows a deficit of 77.6 billion between December 2020 and November 2021, confirming the forecast of most observers: our foreign trade deficit will exceed 85 billion in 2021, which is more than many in France. Worst in decades. , and the highest, by far, in the entire euro area.

If a country’s competitiveness is judged by the scale of its foreign trade, France’s already vulnerable position has not improved. According to Destatis, the German counterpart of INSEE, the German surplus in 2021 will be around 200 billion.

You have 54.9% left to read this article. The following is for customers only.