One of the great poets of the English Renaissance, John Dryden, wrote: “Even the victors lose by their victories”. The same could happen for Boris Johnson. The British prime minister, stuck in partygate after winning a no-confidence motion launched by 54 Conservative MPs on Monday 6 June, is still facing the biggest crisis of his mandate. Experts assure that this vote announces his imminent departure from Downing Street.

From his remarkable debut as a journalist at the Daily Telegraph, for which he wrote humorous and often misleading articles on Brussels, to the completion of Brexit, the British Prime Minister’s meteoric rise was based on his good-natured personality, which was associated with Brexit. The drastic rise of pro-conservatives. But since Britain left the European Union in January 2020, the prime minister’s tenure has been plagued by blunders and scandals.

>> Partygate: The dates of the scandal that weakened Boris Johnson

Politically, Boris Johnson reached a peak of popularity in the December 2019 general election, when the Conservatives won a record number of seats, not seen since the Thatcherite tidal wave of 1987. According to the journal Parliamentary Affairs, three factors could then explain this historic victory. Conservatives, despite nine years in power: “Boris, Brexit and Corbyn”.

But today, Brexit no longer affects British political life and Jeremy Corbyn has been kicked out of the Labor Party. Boris Johnson’s resounding victory in 2019 marked the end of both. Of his three trump cards, all that is left for the prime minister is his popularity, which has been severely blunted since the outbreak of “Partygate”.

“Beautiful Moment”

Since the publication in late May of a damaging report on the organization by Boris Johnson and his team of parties in violation of confinement to fight against Covid-19, polls show a majority of British voters want his resignation. The two farewell drinks, held in Downing Street the day before Prince Philip’s funeral in April 2021, are particularly scandalous: images of the Queen, who sat alone to attend her husband’s funeral, then captured the attention of Kingdom-United was a symbol of the harshness of the imprisonment imposed on him. ,

The Platinum Jubilee provided a vivid display of the contrast between the respect accorded by the British to their head of state and their contempt for the head of government. The crowd greeted Boris Johnson as he arrived at St. Paul’s Cathedral on Saturday to join a mass in honor of the Queen’s 70-year reign.

Such a scene is a “surprising moment in British political life”, analyzes Jonathan Tong, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool. “It Shows How Boris Johnson Has Been An Election Foil. If It’s 54 Characters” [pour demander la motion de censure NDLR]were not already sent, they were certainly sent soon.”

The Tories will soon find out just how much of an election drag Boris Johnson is in. A Sunday Times poll has predicted a heavy defeat for the Tories against Labor in the June 23 by-election at Wakefield, near Leeds, in northern England. The Conservative vote is expected to decrease, especially among ex-laborers who have become Conservative over the past two decades, to become significant among Conservative voters.

“He doesn’t seem to be able to win the election anymore”

In such a situation, the Tories are considered cruel to their leaders. In 1990, Tory lawmakers impeached Margaret Thatcher herself, thinking she was too long to be re-elected in Downing Street.

Aside from these purely electoral calculations, conservatives have always shown themselves eager to appear as capable leaders to delve beyond their ideological base. Partygate is particularly damaging to Boris Johnson, notes Jonathan Tong. “It’s not an ideological fight. Johnson was never a thinker. His only ideological vision was to get Brexit, and again because he thought it was in the direction of the wind. Before that it was skill, political art, election victory.” about – but now he’s infamous and it doesn’t look like he can win the election anymore, which is a big deal.”

Many observers have noted a lack of discipline among Tory lawmakers following Boris Johnson’s early victory. His popularity plummeted when he was slow to impose a lockdown in 2020, and even more so this year when he defied a Tory manifesto calling for an increase in national insurance contributions amid a cost crunch. Life picked up. But it was the partygate that really turned the tide and ignited the Tories’ survival instincts.

Tim Bell, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “While the Labor Party was ahead in the elections, and never more so, MPs disappointed with Boris Johnson were still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.” “But over the past few weeks, under pressure from partygate and the cost of life crisis, polls have shown he will no longer be able to save enough seats to persuade Tory lawmakers to continue supporting him in the next election.”

“Under Pressure Like No One”

Boris Johnson nevertheless retains the support of his cabinet. Some of his most prominent ministers (and potential successors), such as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, have expressed their strongest support for him. The most prominent minister to break the ranks is Johnson’s “anti-corruption champion” John Penrose, a name unfamiliar to the general public.

But even though Boris Johnson won the required number of votes on Monday to remain in power, 148 Conservative lawmakers (out of 359 voters) voted against him. And previous examples show that no-confidence votes reflect the problems that ultimately lead to prime ministers resigning.

Trapped in Brexit, Theresa May won a majority vote of Conservative lawmakers in a no-confidence motion in 2018, before being forced to resign less than a year later.

“In the past, it has always been like this…. But if anyone can avoid it, it is [Boris Johnson], Nuance Jonathan Tonge. However, I doubt that this is the beginning of the end. He’s under pressure like no one else.”

At first glance, the lack of a natural heir may give Boris Johnson a chance to escape his fate. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, the counterpart of the Finance Minister, Rishi Sunak, had by then enjoyed significant popularity, thanks to his acclaimed management of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. But Rishi Sunak’s popularity was tainted last April when he was fined for attending a Partygate party with Boris Johnson. It is also learned that his wife, Indian billionaire Akshata Murphy enjoys ‘non-domicile’ status, which allows her not to pay tax on income earned while living abroad.United Kingdom.

Other potential candidates, such as the Secretary of State for Equal Opportunity, Housing and Communities, Michael Gove, and former Secretary of State for Health, Jeremy Hunt, are considered capable administrators but lack popularity.

“There is no doubt that the best thing that ever happened to Boris Johnson was Sunak’s fines and his wife’s scandal. He was clearly the runner-up, and is no more,” explains politics professor John Curtis. University of Strathclyde. “None of the potential candidates have managed to win over the masses. But the Tories are facing the following problem: The six months they have spent trying to defend Boris Johnson are void.”

“The absence of an undisputed successor is far from ideal, says Tim Bell. But the idea that it takes dolphins to conduct internal elections is absurd: If the situation seems bad, political parties are always looking for a new leader. Will do, anyone but a leader who leads them to defeat.”

Adapted from English by Lou Romeo. The original version of the article is available here.