Perhaps it is not surprising that when a party puts much more internal questionnaires than usual, it is good for its parties. The parties tend to vote well when they have it. Since 2004, +0.96 on a scale of -1 to +1 between the share of partisan surveys released by Democrats and a close ratio November Results.

Democratic and liberal harmony groups 17 Home surveys It is taken in April or later. Republican compatible groups have set 0. This is a very bad rate for Republicans.

Interestingly, Republicans dominated the voting environment in the first quarter of the year. Between January and March, Republican and conservative groups published 10 surveys, compared to 2 of the Democrats.

In other words, it is very logical that Democrats began to dominate the view of the vote in the past few months. There was very good news they wanted in public for their own side. Meanwhile, republicans probably saw numbers that would not make them look good.

Now, you may be wondering if the interstate inquiry is doing the same thing. As a result, presidential elections are mostly won at the state level. Unfortunately, presidential campaigns do not reveal their own data, and partisan interstate surveys have less chance of shaping the narrative because there are many public polls. Nevertheless, there are some external groups that broadcast data, and we see largely the same picture as region data portraits.

Since April, Democratic or liberal groups have published 30 statewide polls in the presidential race. Republicans revealed only 13. This means that the Democratic share of internal surveys across the state is 70%.

Indeed, the 2018 example talks about a bigger pattern since 2004. Although the democrats tend to publicize more internal polls, they are very successful when this advantage is very difficult.

When Democrats reveal 70% or more of the internal parliamentary polls, there is a huge increase in their direction in terms of popular vote. Since 2004, Republicans have never published 70% or more of internal Assembly polls. The only time they had something close to it (2010) got more Home seats than any election in the past 70 years.

When the Democrats reveal about 60% of the internal parliamentary surveys, the national environment often does not change significantly from the previous election.

Something less, and Republicans will likely succeed, like the elections in 2010, when the Democrats’ publicly announced internal Assembly polls were only 35%.

Democrats will definitely adopt a political environment as in 2018. Recent figures show that this might be better for them. They point to a national political environment in which they are favored by the double households.

Something must change for the Republicans or they will explode in November.