By October 1, this number could increase more than 300,000.
The creators of the model say that the countries in the projection assume that they will follow the social withdrawal guidelines. If prevention measures are weakened, deaths may be even higher.
Large populations, big problems
The eight most populous countries in Latin America and the Caribbean – Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela, Chile and Ecuador – make up more than 82% of the region’s population.
Therefore, it is not surprising that these countries drive exponential growth in both coronavirus cases and deaths.
Of the 33 countries in the region, these eight countries account for 94% of total cases and 96% of total deaths.
Brazil is the worst offender in the distance. Registered cases and deaths – 1,496,858 and 61,884 respectively, from Thursday continue to climb. The seven-day moving average of newly confirmed cases is higher than ever. It is no longer unusual to report more than 40,000 new cases per day.
Reopening of the economy in Mexico has also taken an important step. In Mexico City, the country’s hardest hit region, bosses enjoyed cocktails and appetizers in restaurants this week for the first time since March 23. Hotels, lounges and markets can now be opened.
This situation is despite the death toll on Thursday evening at 21,189. This death toll is roughly twice that of a month ago, and is now higher than in Spain.
Small countries in the region are generally much better off to control their outbreaks. Uruguay and Paraguay have fewer than 50 deaths in total. Belize has recorded a total of 28 cases since the outbreak began.
However, health officials are concerned about other small countries, such as Costa Rica, that have seen more than double the total of cases in the past month. Pan American Health Organization said new cases may not be on top until October.
The broad wage of the outbreak
The economic outlook in Latin America and the Caribbean was not large before the outbreak came. It has been much worse since then.
Even the countries that survived the health effects of the epidemic will not be able to avoid the results.
Many island countries in the Caribbean have a limited number of cases, but a major blow to their economies, tourism, the lifeblood for most, is falling rapidly.
Some of these unemployed will come from the airline industry, with the carriers of the region among the worst hits in the world.
Mexican carrier Aeromexico filed for bankruptcy this week, joining LatAm Airlines and Avianca Airlines since the third airline epidemic in the region started.
Forest fires may not appear directly linked to a deadly virus. Environmental activists, however, said that illegal loggers and farm owners made use of limited official sources during the pandemic and burned big-gain forests for financial gain.
Signs of hope
Peru and Chile recorded the sixth and seventh virus cases worldwide, with about 600,000 in total.
However, after months of terrible news, both countries made a more hopeful voice this week.
Wednesday in Chile pointed to the lowest one-day increase in new cases since May 19. The country’s seven-day average has also dropped significantly since its peak on June 21.
“Data at the national level is good,” said Chilean Health Minister Enrique Paris. “The country still has fever, but the fever is much lower,” he continued, as the number of infections increased.
On Thursday, Peru celebrated its sixth consecutive day, when the number of people discharged from hospitals was higher than the number of new cases.
Peru’s Ministry of Health said on Thursday that “… it is one of the best dates in the fight against the epidemic”.
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