Some British scientists are convinced that the worst-case scenario for the current wave of Covid-19 is unlikely to recur. However, they anticipate an increase in Omicron cases in early summer.

This is the opinion of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), an advisory body to the UK government. Indeed, according to this group, a new wave of omicron cases is to be predicted in the summer, when people resume their social activities and their immunity is reduced.

According to the Guardian, the news comes as ministers come under pressure from some MPs to lift all Plan B restrictions in England. Because according to some experts, the forecasts were far more alarming than the reality. The vaccines were actually resistant to severe forms of the disease, and the Omicron variant was found to be of less severity than the delta variant.

Forecast still uncertain

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated on Friday 14 January that 3,735,000 people in England – or about 1 in 15 people – had been infected with Covid-19 during the week, compared with the figure for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. was about 1. in 20. Infection levels have also peaked in London, rising from 1 in 10 at the end of 2021 to 1 in 15 in early January. However, the ONS uses tests conducted by a representative sample of 150,000 people to extrapolate potential infection rates and was found to be three times higher than the official figures in December.

While the overall risk associated with Omicron remains high, the forecast for the summer looks uncertain. “At this stage, it is too early to tell. I think the next week will be very important in terms of future direction,” a government source told the Guardian.