What if he loses?

Why wait for the opening of a President for months and how does Trump step in?

CNN: We hold presidential elections on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. However, the new President is not in office until January. What is the reason for this gap and is it still necessary?

KAB: The reason for this gap is to ensure the peaceful transfer of power and it is absolutely necessary. Maybe now more than ever.

I interviewed more than two dozen people working for Barack Obama and George W. Bush, and both sides were said to have experienced a smooth transition, which was important at a time when the country was going through the worst economic crisis since the great crisis. . “The first female and first cadres will never forget the intense friendship and loyalty they have for each other,” said Jackie Norris, the first chief of staff of Michelle Obama. The same was true for the West Wing.

The haphazard way in which the Trump campaign approaches the transition is dangerous. Being part of this is because nobody on the campaign team has taken the time to make an acceptance speech. They didn’t think they would win.

Trump won the elections by saying that he would “partially free up the swamp,” but they have basic responsibilities that the federal government would have been better equipped to manage if it had some corporate knowledge (vice versa). And this takes time, so it takes a few months to make an appointment and learn how things work.

In my “Team Five” book, I told Obama assistants how to prepare bold “how-to” handbooks on how their office works, including as little details as voicemail passwords.

From this book:

However, Obama did not hand over the helpers’ carefully selected briefing books to anyone.

Career government employees waited across the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Commerce and the entire expanding bureaucracy. They wanted guidance – they wanted to know who their new boss was and how their business would change under Trump – but they had nothing. In fact, some senior employees waited and waited until after weeks of silence they were no longer hired and packed their offices.

How can Trump come out?

CNN: After watching Trump’s first period, what are the things we should look for in a post-defeat transition?

Peaceful transfers

CNN: The USA is known for its peaceful power transfer. Is there a precedent that causes damage to a losing president or management’s exit from the door?

KAB: Historically there were certainly some severe defeats (see John Adams and Thomas Jefferson), but in modern times both sides demonstrated their ability to transfer power in peace. During the 2008 campaign, Bush’s national intelligence director, John Michael McConnell, arranged for Obama and his Republican rival Sen. John McCain to receive a report on the thirteen most important national security issues he had. Once, in the last two months of the 2008 campaign, Obama and McCain sat at the same table in the Roosevelt Room, sitting among them, they saw Congress discussing the $ 700 billion mandate to save the disease-sinking market.

Bush and Obama had a real respect for each other. Explaining the official portraits of George W. and Laura Bush in the White House in May 2012, Obama said, “Saving our economy is not just a Democratic or Republican issue, but understanding American priority. Be grateful for that.” President Trump and President Obama is not reported to invite his portrait at the White House.

Trump is unlikely to refuse to go somehow

CNN: Trump is not the kind to go quietly. What kind of things could the government do if it wanted to throw a wheel into its machine?

KAB: He could refuse to leave, but I don’t see that happening. Bill Maher is particularly discussed on the left, so there is something in people’s minds. I have trouble dreaming

With hundreds of thousands of people sitting on the steps of Trump Capitol and cheering to leave the audience.

Former presidents were traditionally admiring each other even after being forced to be dismissed. After speaking at the opening of Jimmy Carter’s library, Ronald Reagan said, “Now I understand why he’s winning more clearly than ever before.” Said.

Jimmy Carter apologized to George W. Bush for being too harsh on Bush’s library, especially for his outspoken criticism of the war in Iraq. “Ah, shut up,” Bush replied. Can you imagine when he accomplished him with Trump and whoever?

What if he wins?

Embolden Embolden

CNN: No President was charged, acquitted and not elected again. If he wins, you can imagine that Trump will feel bolder than anyone in history. How can Trump treat the office as the ultimate winner in a second period?

KAB: I think he will feel confident to do whatever he wants. When I interviewed him for my book, it was shortly after the Mueller report was published and he felt as if he had cleared him. He was frankly enthusiastic and eager to talk about how he thought he was doing more than any president in history. Thus, I can only imagine his reaction to re-election only after being accused. Much of the time he does will prove the tremendous power of his voters, only by considering his supporters and if he is re-elected. I think it criticized journalists and the so-called “deep state” more than it does today. It would not be a good scene.

There is no historical precedent for Trump

CNN: Is there any other president who won the White House that was not popular and then won popular elections again? Are there two other presidents as divisive as Trump?

KAB: I think George W. Bush was incredibly divisive, but not to that extent. Mission grades have increased since leaving office. Like Trump, he was elected without popular votes. Bush followed his father’s leadership and mostly remained on the sidelines. It followed the rise of approval ratings because absence really makes the heart even bigger. I can’t predict Trump to be on the sidelines.

Unpopular presidents and second term

CNN: What can we learn from the second presidents who were not wildly popular and won against expectations when they were re-elected (I think of Harry Truman here or Richard Nixon)?

KAB: If you look at Nixon and Watergate, winning with a slight margin made him more paranoid and unreasonable and led to his resignation. This example does not work well.

Trump and his GOP successor

CNN: We have deep thoughts here, but if Trump wins, I wondered how he would treat a loyal soldier, Mike Pence, in this early period. It’s hard to imagine that Trump’s reality handed over his trump to someone like Pence, who undoubtedly trumped his skills as the next sensible GOP candidate like Pence. What does history tell us?

KAB: Trump is not loyal to people just because they are loyal to him. I think Mike would treat Pence well when he was re-elected because logically, Pence would help him convince the Protestant voters to stay with him. But I don’t think loyalty will last long and Trump can support someone else if he runs Pence in 2024.